Project developer RB Rail has presented a fiscal analysis for the Rail Baltica project, concluding that the project is viable for national budgets under all examined financing scenarios. The project company responsible for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania analysed the construction phase based on current cost estimates and external studies. According to the analysis, for every euro invested, between EUR 0.19-0.21 will flow back to public budgets via value-added tax, income tax, and social security contributions. The analysis compared conservative, mixed, and optimistic scenarios. In the conservative scenario, with 1.5 times the already secured CEF funds plus additional national financing, net contributions amounted to around 22% in Estonia, 21% in Latvia, and 36% in Lithuania. In the most likely mixed scenario, which includes additional sources such as funds from the recovery instrument, revenues from emission allowances, and public-private partnerships (PPP), these shares decreased to around 7%, 4%, and 13%, respectively. In the optimistic scenario with an EU share of 85%, a potential net surplus emerged, although this scenario is considered unlikely. Operation, maintenance, and vehicle procurement were not taken into account. This analysis supplements the 2024 cost-benefit analysis by including the fiscal effects of the construction phase.
